Guess the Future: An Ancient Fascination
Human beings have always nurtured a deep desire: to predict the future. It is an ancient fascination, an innate drive to anticipate what will happen, often to the point of being willing to bet resources on this intuition.
However, trying to anticipate events often entails high risks.
This Dashboard transforms this intuition into a structured and conscious strategy.
We want to allow you to satisfy this desire to “Guess the Future” consciously. Without taking more risk than you are already taking holding Bitcoin in your Investment Portfolio, but with concrete access to profit opportunities.
Why This Dashboard?
The purpose of this platform is not merely to provide information to avoid losses, but to allow you to fully hedge your Bitcoin positions.
Our true goal is to give you a competitive edge. We do not limit ourselves to safety: we provide real-time insights, strategic guidance, and operational signals designed to significantly increase your probability of success.
The Added Value
- Increased Security: Hedging mechanisms designed to structurally mitigate Bitcoin downside risk.
- Real-Time Signals: Immediate alerts on volatility and price dynamics to enter positions at optimal moments.
- Advanced Analytics: Professional-grade tools (Sentiment, Volatility, Odds) simplified for rapid decision-making.
In summary: you maintain long-term exposure while maximizing short-term opportunities. This is the evolution of conscious trading.
Core Assumptions of the Strategy
The Covered Bitcoin Strategy is built on two fundamental assumptions:
- The investor already holds, or intends to hold, Bitcoin (or another cryptocurrency referenced on Polymarket).
- The investor believes Bitcoin is a structurally solid asset, expected to grow over the long term, while remaining volatile or range-bound in the short term.
Given these assumptions, the strategy can be defined as “covered” by construction. From the outset, even before applying the strategy, we explicitly assume that Bitcoin can experience drawdowns or sharp corrections. This risk is already embedded in the decision to hold the asset itself.
In this context, prediction market positions are not designed to eliminate uncertainty, but to systematically exploit short-term market behavior.
Technical Details: The Covered Bitcoin Strategy
1. Introduction
This strategy combines direct exposure to Bitcoin with positions on decentralized prediction markets such as Polymarket. The objective is to create a hedged positioning framework in which potential short-term losses, stagnation, or volatility are structurally mitigated, while preserving full participation in long-term upside.
2. Bitcoin: Brief Overview
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset operating on a public blockchain. It is widely regarded both as a speculative asset and as a long-term store of value, characterized by high liquidity, strong network effects, and significant short-term volatility.
3. Polymarket: What It Is and How It Works
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users trade binary contracts (Yes/No) on real-world events. Each contract represents the market-implied probability of an event occurring and is priced between $0 and $1. Contracts are settled at expiration based on the realized outcome, with full transparency ensured by blockchain infrastructure.
4. Strategy Description
The strategy consists of holding Bitcoin in a wallet while simultaneously opening Polymarket positions that benefit if Bitcoin does not reach predefined upside price thresholds within a specific time horizon.
This provides effective coverage during periods in which Bitcoin is stable, volatile, or underperforms expectations in the short term.
Example Scenario
An investor owns Bitcoin purchased at $90,000 and enters a Polymarket contract betting “NO” on Bitcoin exceeding $92,000 within one week.
The investor retains the Bitcoin and earns yield from the Polymarket contract.
The Polymarket payout partially or fully offsets the loss on Bitcoin.
The Polymarket position expires worthless, but the appreciation of Bitcoin more than compensates for the loss.
In all scenarios, the portfolio remains structurally balanced.
5. Strategy Logic and Use of Indicators
While the strategy could theoretically be implemented without discretion, this would imply placing downside-oriented positions blindly. This is not the intended approach.
Crypto Monitor provides a comprehensive dashboard including volatility indicators, sentiment analysis, probabilistic odds, and aggregated insights from reputable public sources. These tools are designed to avoid entering downside positions during periods where strong upward movements are widely expected.
The objective is not to win every individual position, but to ensure that over the full investment horizon, the number of winning outcomes exceeds the number of losing ones. This statistical edge, combined with continuous exposure to Bitcoin’s long-term growth, is what enables consistent profitability.
6. Why This Is Not Pure Gambling
Although prediction markets are often associated with gambling, in this framework they are used as a structured risk management and yield optimization tool. There is no uncovered directional exposure: losses on one side are structurally compensated by gains on the other.
7. Key Advantages
- Preservation of long-term upside exposure to Bitcoin.
- Profit generation during sideways, volatile, or mildly bearish markets.
- No leverage, no margin calls, no complex derivatives.
- Fully transparent, on-chain execution.
8. Risks and Considerations
While the strategy significantly mitigates directional risk, it is not entirely risk-free. Key considerations include liquidity conditions on Polymarket, contract timing relative to spot price movements, execution discipline, and the evolving regulatory environment.